AlphaGBM Says Memory Chips Are Mispriced in AI Buildout

AlphaGBM published research on June 30, 2026 arguing that memory semiconductor stocks are still valued like a cyclical business even as AI infrastructure demand tightens supply and boosts earnings visibility. The report says the shift could leave DRAM and HBM producers structurally undervalued versus other AI-adjacent chip names.

Why it matters: - AlphaGBM says memory semiconductors are being valued too cheaply relative to the AI infrastructure boom. - The firm argues that long-term supply agreements, tight production, and strong pricing have changed the economics of the memory business. - If that view proves correct, DRAM and HBM makers could keep earning power longer than the market expects.

What happened: - AlphaGBM, a Hong Kong-based independent investment research firm, published The Memory Super Cycle on June 30, 2026. - The report says there is a widening valuation gap between memory chip companies and other AI infrastructure stocks. - AlphaGBM’s founder, Minmin Zeng, said the four-decade-old boom-bust framework for memory stocks may no longer apply. - Zeng said long-term supply agreements and a three-company oligopoly controlling 96% of the global DRAM market have changed earnings visibility.

The details: - DRAM prices have risen about 10x from the 2023 trough, moving from $0.15/GB to $1.50/GB, according to industry pricing data cited in the report. - Goldman Sachs projects DRAM prices will rise 250% to 280% in 2026, citing the widest supply-demand gap in 11 years. - The report says high bandwidth memory supply is fully contracted through 2027. - Hyperscalers including Microsoft, Google and OpenAI have secured multi-year long-term agreements for memory supply. - Memory producers are reporting gross margins above 75%. - Forward price-to-earnings ratios for memory producers remain in the 5x to 10x range. - The report compares that with 25x to 35x forward earnings multiples for other AI-adjacent semiconductor companies. - AlphaGBM says major AI buyers have locked in memory pricing 2 to 5 years ahead, which reduces the revenue swings that have historically pressured valuations. - The report says no major new fabrication facilities are expected before 2028. - AlphaGBM estimates supply growth at 15% to 20% a year against demand growth of 20% to 25%. - Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron collectively control 96% of global DRAM production, according to the report. - The company says that level of concentration has created pricing discipline not seen in earlier cycles. - AlphaGBM says consumer electronics demand remains weak, with smartphone and PC shipments down about 20% in 2026. - The firm also says Korean-listed memory stocks face structural liquidity risk from persistent foreign fund outflows.

Between the lines: - The report is making a broader claim than a near-term price call: memory chips may be moving from a cyclical trade to a more durable infrastructure bottleneck. - That would help explain why earnings are improving while valuations still look compressed versus AI infrastructure peers. - The thesis also depends on disciplined supply, which could weaken if new capacity arrives faster than demand.

What's next: - AlphaGBM says new fab capacity scheduled for the second half of 2028 could narrow the supply-demand gap if AI infrastructure spending slows. - The firm is also watching CXMT, which it says recently IPO'd at a valuation above $70 billion and holds 3.97% of global DRAM share. - Future investor attention will likely focus on whether the current pricing tightness lasts through 2027 and into the next wave of capacity additions.

The bottom line: - AlphaGBM’s message is simple: memory chips may be the most mispriced part of the AI supply chain, because the market is still treating them like a boom-bust commodity instead of a constrained infrastructure asset.

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